Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Rope-a-dope

I'm certain there is plenty of post-debate coverage out there, so I'll make this short and sweet. This was definitely the best of the three debates - Scheiffer was an excellent moderator. I watched the debate on MSNBC and followed the always excellent liveblogging at CFLF - you can check it out here if you missed the debate and want a blow-by-blow.

Final analysis? I hesitate to declare an out and out winner; but with no game changers that I saw, Obama is the winner by default, as McCain needed to really shake things up. It was apparent that he knew this going into it - he started the night off on fire, and turned in some of his best debate performances of his career for the first half hour. But Obama played it out with what I've been calling the statistics rope-a-dope - he doused McCain's fire with sound policy and consistent references to statistics, facts, and procedures. This just absorbed McCain's punches, no matter how solid, and by 10:45 McCain's fire was gone.

Once Obama settled into a groove, he came across as polished and presidential - he had a policy response ready for every question, and he had some decent counterpunches for some of McCain's attacks, although again, the focus seemed to be on draining McCain's energy with solid policy prescriptions.

And looking at the snap polling, it appears to have been astoundingly effective, far more effective than I'd expected. I'm seeing polls showing an Obama win at 58 (O) - 31 (M) from CNN and 53-22 from CBS... those are huge numbers!

Without a knock out punch from McCain, I expect polling to either stabilize or continue to trend towards Obama over the next few days.

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